MLB Record/Standings Prediction: AL Central
#1 - Cleveland Guardians - 89-73
I have learned to stop doubting the Guardians in the preseason. They always find a way to exceed expectations and have a great year that ends in a playoff appearance. The Guardians will always have a good pitching staff. They were lacking a starter or two last season, but Shane Bieber coming back will be a great boost to the rotation. The bullpen was lock down last year with the trio of Cade Smith, Hunter Gaddis and Emmanual Clase. I would have liked Cleveland to grab a power bat in the offseason after trading Josh Naylor, but Carlos Santana will be a good replacement, and I believe the newly-acquired Nolan Jones can add some value in the outfield. I like the Guardians chances to get back to the postseason in 2025.
#2 - Minnesota Twins - 87-75
The Minnesota Twins look good on paper, but their health always scares me. If the Twins stay healthy, they can easily win the division, but that is hard to count on. Last year, Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa played less than 110 games, and Royce Lewis’ health is always a gamble, especially when he just went down with another injury in Spring Training. The pitching staff still looks great. The back end of the bullpen with Griffin Jax and Jhoan Duran will be nasty. Health is the biggest factor for Minnesota. If they can stay healthy for a full year, they can win this division, but that gamble is too much to put them over the Guardians going into 2025.
#3 - Kansas City Royals - 86-76
This Royals team is very fun, and isn’t much different than the playoff team from last year, but the offense worries me a little bit. We all know how great of a player Bobby Witt Jr. is, he will carry a big load just like he did last year. I believe that Vinnie Pasquantino and Jonathan India are good pieces, and Salvador Perez seems to just keep hitting. But beyond that, there is a deep drop off that I hoped was going to get fixed, but didn’t. No one else in the lineup had an OPS over .690. I am not confident in Kyle Isbel, Nelson Valezquez, Maikel Garcia or Hunter Renfroe at all. The offense is going to need top prospect Jac Caglianone to come up and do some damage. The pitching is a different story. The Royals rotation and bullpen is very good. Cole Ragans, Michael Wacha and Seth Lugo all had incredible years in 2024, and should replicate that in 2025. The bullpen is lock-down, with Lucas Erceg and newly-acquired Carlos Estevez throwing the 8th and 9th innings. If the Royals have a good first half and get a quality bat at the trade deadline, this team can make another playoff push in 2025.
#4 - Detriot Tigers - 81-81
The Tigers feel very similar to the Kansas City Royals, with a little less offense. We know the pitching is good. Tarik Skubal is a top 3 pitcher in the league, bringing back Jack Flaherty was a good move, and Jackson Jobe will have a great rookie season. The bullpen is great too, and it really showed well down the stretch in 2024. Tyler Holton was great, accumulating 3.1 bWAR out of the bullpen, and Will Vest, Beau Brieske and Jason Foley were also great. The offense is where they will struggle. They have a good core in Riley Greene, Kerry Carpenter and Parker Meadows that will perform well, on top of adding Gleyber Torres. They will need a major step up from guys like Colt Keith, Wencel Perez and Jake Rogers. This is a make or break year for Spencer Torkelson, if he does not perform, I can see him getting traded at the deadline. If the offense can come alive, this Tigers team will perform well within the AL Central.
#5 - Chicago White Sox - 52-110
The situation with the Chicago White Sox is just hard to talk about for baseball fans. Coming off of the worst season in modern MLB history with a 41-121 record, this team is not much better than they were a year ago. A good chunk of their wins came from Garrett Crochet, who was traded this offseason to the Red Sox, and Eric Fedde who was traded midseason last year to St. Louis. Jonathan Cannon and Sean Burke will be good arms, but everyone else a fringe major leaguer, and same goes for the offense. They only had one player who had an OPS above .700. and that was Paul Dejong, who is no longer on the team. I hope Luis Robert Jr. can bring some life to this team and they can win more games this year than last year, unless he gets traded at the deadline.
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